A multimodal transport chain choice model for container transport

Abstract

A large part of freight transport movements are part of a multimodal transport chain, in particular for port-related containerized transport flows. Because data of multimodal transports are unavailable it is challenging to develop a multimodal transport chain models. This paper describes the development of a new module for multimodal transport chains for modelling container transport within the Dutch strategic freight transport model “BasGoed”. The choice model distinguishes unimodal, bi-modal or tri-modal transport chains, depending on whether the transport chain is port-related. A direct road chain is available between each production and consumption combination; direct barge or rail transport is only available between seaports. A route enumeration module generates a choice set for each observed uni- or multimodal container transport. Since no directly observed PC data are available, a synthetic dataset was constructed with container flows between locations of production and consumption, using uni-modal observed transport data. Main assumption is that each container transported by rail or barge requires a road leg at the side of destination and/or origin, to complete the multimodal transport chain. Discrete choice models were estimated with different model structures. The best choice model that was found was a multinomial logit model, segmented by port dependency. The results show that a choice model can be estimated with significant parameters, and with plausible model sensitivities.