Exploring the Robustness of Current Development Directions of Zwolle Region in Distant-Future Sea Level Rise Scenarios

Abstract

Foresight used in the current developments of the Zwolle region limits itself to short-and-medium term foresights. Based on the hypothesis that prioritizing decision-making based on short-term, risks and opportunities may inadvertently omit crucial factors, while a focus on longer-term perspectives enables a more comprehensive understanding of complexity and uncertainty, questions the robustness of the developments. Therefore, this thesis conducted a case-study to assess the durability of current and novel development directions of the Zwolle Region focussed on distant-future sea level rise scenarios to amplify anticipatory consciousness, and therefore broadening the scope of policy directions for decision makers. For this, this thesis turned to the question: How robust are the current proposed development directions of the Zwolle Region compared to Sea Level Rise scenarios up to 2300? Based on a systematic grey literature an overview of the novel development directions of the region have has been created. According to a Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways analysis, the developments were compared to distant-future sea level rise scenarios that were based on interim KNMI sea level rise scenarios and semi-structured expert interviews. Following the analysis, it was determined that the proposed development directions assume the existing condition of the regional water system. Given the projected rise in water levels due to SLR, which is expected to significantly impact the regional water system, leading to increased moisture and frequent flooding, this thesis asserts that the current proposed developments lack robustness.