Impact of building renovation on the decarbonized European energy system

Abstract

Currently, there are optimization models that are able of modeling building renovation, but their scope is limited only to the heating system. There are also models that consider interactions between different energy subsystems, but they lack the ability to simulate building renovation. Having those two things combined would be beneficial as the impact of renovation on the power system might be significant.
The goal of this thesis is to assess the impact of building renovation on the energy system. It was done with the use of Euro-calliope model, which is capable of minimizing the cost of the whole energy system. In the current state, Euro-calliope model does not offer the chance to renovate the building stock. Therefore, the aim of this work is to introduce the building renovation option subject to the software objective function and reshape, when necessary, the heating sector.
The main outcome is that the heating sector significantly affects the distribution of power generation sources as most of heat is supplied via heat pumps. The penetration of renovation increases the fraction of energy generated by photovoltaics in the energy mix. However, when it comes to absolute values, in all scenarios wind farms are dominating.
The cost-optimal renovation always results in a higher renovation level than the currently present renovation levels. However, those levels are usually lower than the currently imposed local renovation standards. Moreover, the renovation has a positive impact on decreasing the variability of the system costs for scenarios with low renewable supply.