A systematic approach to facilitate decision-making within the heat transition in the Netherlands: A case study application to the municipality of Delft

Abstract

The growing global population combined with improved prosperity has increased the energy demand. The consequence of this growing energy demand is an increase in greenhouse gas emissions leading to climate change. The irreversible and worrying consequences of climate change have led to various national and international targets. In the Netherlands, national targets are integrated into policy making in 2019, distinguishing between five sectors. This study aims to describe a systematic approach that contributes to facilitating decision-making in the heat transition in the built environment. The approach consists of three steps, considering the system elements of a socio-technical environment. The first step of the systematic approach is formed by an actor analysis, where through an actor identification and categorization the non-rational aspects are mapped. These non-rational aspects, consisting for example of willingness to participate in the heat transition and underlying technological preferences, can be used to determine the social feasibility of a heat transition vision. The second step in the systematic approach is the application of the techno-economic Vesta MAIS model. This model can calculate at a neighborhood level per heat transition vision the national cost and share of energy carrier. In this way, the model contributes to facilitating decision-making at the municipal level. To enrich the technical aspects of the Vesta MAIS model with insights into grid congestion, this study proposes a power flow analysis as the third step in the systematic approach. This power flow analysis enables municipal decision-makers to analyze the impact of the heat transition on the existing power grid at an early stage.