Inclusive carbon neutral pathways – Assessing the role of two renewable energy supply chains between Africa and the EU in greening their respective energy mix

Abstract

The European Union has set itself the target of becoming climate neutral by 2050 through a series of policies affecting industries such as the energy sector. This sector will be subject to considerable change with renewable energies set to replace fossil fuels. However, the EU will not be able to solely rely on its domestic production of renewable energies. An option would be to import from Africa as it is close to Europe, while it has considerable potential in terms of renewable energies. Therefore, this research addresses the following question: How can Africa-EU hydrogen and biomass supply chains contribute to the greening of the EU’s energy mix by 2050 while contributing to Africa’s renewable energy development? This question is answered by assessing two renewable energy supply chains: biomass and hydrogen. This study uses the Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis framework to investigate these intercontinental supply chains. The research identifies the top-three African countries based on parameters relevant to both supply chains, such as their existing energy infrastructure, transport infrastructure and natural resources. The three best performing countries for each supply chain are assessed based on their potential biomass and hydrogen production and exports to the EU by 2050 considering distinct scenarios (realistic and ambitious) for each energy product. The scenarios account for the size of the EU’s demand for biomass and hydrogen respectively in 2050, with hydrogen also containing an average scenario taking into account the average of the forecasted EU energy demanded in existing research. The results show that the best suited African countries for the export of biomass to the EU are Morocco, Egypt and South Africa, while for hydrogen these include Morocco, Egypt and Algeria. It is also found that in a realistic scenario, 5,7% of the EU’s import demand for biomass and 100% of its import demand for green hydrogen could be fulfilled by the top three supplier countries in each case. In the average hydrogen scenario, 33,7% of the EU’s import demand would be fulfilled. For the ambitious scenario, 4% of the biomass import demand and 4,2% of the EU’s hydrogen import demand would be met. The lower percentages of coverage in the ambitious scenario are due to the significantly larger demand of biomass and hydrogen with respect to the realistic scenario. The research finds that across all scenarios, African countries will be able to meet their own demand for biomass and hydrogen through domestic production, except for South Africa which will not be able to fulfil its demand entirely by itself. Additionally, the research highlights important policy areas which need to be considered, which include setting clearer goals for biomass and hydrogen, and encouraging the development of renewable energy demand in Africa and the EU.