Probability analysis considering the temporal properties of fire-induced domino effects

Abstract

If a fire occurs in an area with multiple installations storing or handling flammable materials, it may escalate from one installation to another to form so-called domino effects. The propagation of fire-induced domino effects has temporal properties due to the heating effect of the thermal radiation of fires. Under the action of thermal radiation, the surrounding installations may be damaged, and the probability of damage can be estimated by Probit models. As a result, the propagation path exhibits characteristics of randomness. As new installations catch fire due to domino effects, the thermal radiation received by a target installation changes, so that the damage probability changes dynamically throughout the accident process. This study aims at further improve the previous study of the matrix modeling approach for fire-induced domino effects by considering the heating process of facilities under fire accidents. The analysis process incorporating the damage probability calculation algorithm is presented. The improved approach is illustrated by the study of two cases.