Improved probit models to assess equipment failure caused by domino effect accounting for dynamic and synergistic effects of multiple fires

Abstract

Accidents resulting in industrial fires in chemical and process installations and in industrial parks where relevant quantities of hazardous substances are stored or processed may cause domino effects. Probit models developed and used in a multitude of studies can provide the probability of equipment failure, but they do not consider the effect of multiple radiation sources, and thus fail to capture the effects of severe scenarios as those where multiple fires start at different times in different units. In the present study, a critical thermal dose for equipment failure is defined. A direct procedure for the calculation of ttf based on the critical thermal dose is then introduced, which is able to account for the time at which the different secondary fires start or are extinguished. This allows considering the effects of the primary and of several secondary fire scenarios in causing a domino effect, updating the time to failure on the basis of the dynamic evolution of multiple fire scenarios. The proposed approach is demonstrated through case-studies addressing fire-induced domino effects in an oil storage tank farm.