Modelling of Global Energy Demand in the Transportation Sector

Abstract

This study deals with the modelling of the future global energy demand in
the transportation sector, how and in what extend this could be limited and
which low carbon fuels and technologies could contribute to the mitigation of
the energy demand. In the introduction of the current report, the greenhouse
effect, the global warming and the climate change are defined. Then, the
actions taken and the agreements made to deal with global warming and
climate change are presented and the need for combating them is highlighted.

After the introduction, a literature review is conducted in order to spot
the knowledge gap and formulate the research questions. In the literature
review, the ICCT’s and IEA’s studies are mainly discussed due to their high
quality research and the big amount of published reports. More specifically,
their models, scenarios, policies and results are discussed in detail in
order to accurately define the knowledge gap and formulate the research
questions. Thus, the goal and the main research question of this research
is to answer how could the future global energy demand be mitigated and
which low carbon fuels and technologies could significantly penetrate into
the transportation sector.

In the beginning of this research, the conceptual and the theoretical
frameworks are presented in order to assist with the outline of the thesis
and create the theoretical background for the development of the model.
Then, in order for the research questions to be answered, a forecasting model
calculating the transportation future energy demand by country, transport
mode, technology and energy carrier throughout the period 2015-2050 is developed.
The main features that distinguish this model from models used in
similar studies are the strong focus on the diffusion of low carbon fuels and
technologies, the use of a different diffusion model (the Bass s-curve) and
the country by country with one-year time increments approach.

After the model is verified and validated through comparison with similar
studies and a sensitivity analysis, results are presented for two different
scenarios. The first scenario is called Current Policies scenario and aims to
show a potential pathway of the future global energy demand in the transportation
sector that could happen if no more policies are applied after 2020
and the second scenario is called Accelerated Policies scenario and its target
is to represent a pathway that could happen if new policies are adopted and
stricter implementation is applied.

The results of the two scenarios show that it is possible to achieve a
bending of the energy demand and a diffusion enhancement of low carbon
fuels and technologies if new and stricter policies that motivate technology
improvements and fossil vehicles ban are applied. In particular, the results
indicate that the implementation of new and stricter policies, which could
lead to efficiency improvements, and to more effective diffusion of low carbon
fuels and technologies could achieve reduction of the energy demand after 2029. Moreover, according to the results, electricity is expected to dominate in the transportation sector, while biofuels, hydrogen and ammonia are also
expected to be highly used. However, without further policy action, the
global energy demand is expected to follow a constantly increasing trend
in the future while the penetration of low carbon fuels is expected to be
significantly lower.