Uncertainty quantification of a real low-enthalpy geothermal reservoir

Abstract

The efficient development of a geothermal field can be largely affected by the inherent geological and physical uncertainties. Besides, the uncertain operational and economic parameters can also impact the profit of a project. Systematic uncertainty quantification involving these parameters helps to determine the probability of concerning outputs. In this study, a low-enthalpy geothermal reservoir with strong heterogeneity, located in the West Netherlands Basin, is selected as the research area. Detailed geological model is constructed based on various static data including seismic and log interpretation. However, significant uncertainties still exist in definition of the model parameters, mainly reservoir permeability and porosity. Besides, the fluid properties have not been sampled in this field and can vary in the range between brackish to highly saline water. Also, the heat price and operational investment fluctuate with time and add up to uncertainty. Taking all interested parameters into consideration, the Monte Carlo method is utilized to select specific input data set. The forward simulations are powered by the GPU version of Delft Advance Research Terra Simulator (DARTS), which provides efficient simulation capabilities for geothermal applications. Through this investigation, a wide range of production temperature has been observed due to the uncertainty of the input parameters.