Are engineered river bifurcations susceptible to tipping?

Abstract

Typically the time scale of river response to change of the controls (i.e., flow duration curve, sediment flux, and sea level) is of the order of decades to centuries. Understanding temporal change and, in particular, abrupt change in channel response is increasingly important in engineered river systems, as abrupt change may negatively affect flood risk, navigation, and freshwater supply. The analysis of abrupt change in engineered systems with a bifurcation (i.e., a single channel splitting into two branches or bifurcates) is complicated by the fact that insight and measured data on the partitioning of water and sediment over the bifurcates are typically lacking. Our objective is to provide insight on whether observed abrupt change of the Pannerden bifurcation in the upper Rhine delta (Netherlands) may be associated with tipping.