Evaluating the role of critical infrastructure in disaster management

Abstract

This thesis investigates the role of critical infrastructure (CI) in disaster management, focusing on Hatay in the 2023 Turkey - Syria Earthquake. Given the extensive destruction that impacted critical infrastructure systems, this study aims to investigate both the underlying factors that contributed to infrastructure failures and the effectiveness of the long-term recovery plans for the city. Through a case study approach, this thesis provides insights that not only aid in understanding the earthquake’s impact on Hatay's infrastructure but also offers broader implications for improving resilience in other disaster-prone regions.

The earthquake devastated critical infrastructure in Hatay, delaying rescue and emergency response efforts and exacerbating loss of life and property damage. This research seeks to uncover the root causes that contributed to these failures and evaluate post-disaster recovery plans. The study’s primary question centers on the planning and management shortcomings within critical infrastructure systems and explores how these might be rectified in future disaster responses. The objectives include identifying the key critical infrastructures, analyzing root causes of the key critical infrastructure's system failures, and evaluating the long-term recovery plans’ effectiveness in mitigating risks.

A mixed-methods approach was selected for this case study to provide a comprehensive understanding of the key factors at play. The study includes qualitative analysis based on semi-structured interviews enabling the identification of key critical infrastructures based on stakeholder experiences and perspectives. To investigate the root causes of system failures, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is employed, offering a systematic and logical approach to identify underlying issues and contributing factors. Additionally, the study evaluates the effectiveness of long-term recovery plans through a comparative analysis of retrospective and prospective risk assessments.

In the analysis of the interviews education sector, healthcare services and transportation systems emerged as the key critical infrastructure, with their failure significantly impeding immediate response efforts and their importance in recovery. The education sector, in particular, emerged as a crucial component for long-term recovery and the restoration of societal normalcy. Meanwhile, the healthcare system struggled to manage overwhelming patient surges, while transportation bottlenecks, worsened by damage to road networks and airports, severely delayed the delivery of essential services and resources.

The FTA revealed several critical failures in CI planning and management. Healthcare services experienced capacity overload and staff shortage resulting from resource allocation and distribution failures, lack of seismic retrofitting and neglected structural faults in hospital buildings and restricted access to hospitals originated from transportation system failure. Transportation systems suffered from non-functional airport and road network failure originating from poor site location, previous inaccurate site assessments, inadequate design for site conditions, lack of maintenance and lack of redundancy, leaving many areas inaccessible post-disaster. A recurring theme across CIs was a lack of region-specific resilience planning to account for Hatay’s unique geographic context.

While the recovery plans address several CI weaknesses identified in the root cause analysis, significant gaps remain, especially in aligning strategies with the identified pre-disaster vulnerabilities. Although the recovery efforts incorporate bed capacity improvements and increased redundancy, heightened risk concerning neglected structural faults inaccurate site assessment were observed.

The increased risk suggests that the recovery plans may be addressing symptoms rather than the root causes of vulnerabilities. This points to a need for recovery strategies that go beyond immediate repairs, focusing instead on addressing foundational risks to ensure lasting resilience and reduce the likelihood of repeated failures.

This case study highlights the devastating effects of infrastructure failures during disasters. By addressing the root causes of these failures and implementing more comprehensive, resilient recovery plans, Turkey can build a disaster management framework that is robust enough to withstand future natural disasters. Although disaster management is highly context-dependent and cannot be universally applied, this study is important at a broader level, highlighting the need to identify the root causes of system failures in order to effectively mitigate future disaster risks.