21st Century Channel Response of the Lower Rhine River to Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change puts pressure on river systems, as it increasingly alters the river controls. Engineered rivers with a fixed planform respond to climate change and human intervention by adjusting the channel slope and bed surface grain size distribution. This response often consists of channel bed incision, over hundreds of kilometres, and during decades to centuries, resulting in serious disruptions of inland navigation, increased flood risk, and ecological degradation. Here we investigate how the lower Rhine River (Bonn, Germany – Vuren, the Netherlands, including the Pannerden bifurcation) continues to adjust to channelization measures of the 19th century (Ylla Arbós et al., 2021), and responds to different climate scenarios of control change over the 21st century, using a schematized one-dimensional numerical model for mixed size sediment.