Decision making under deep uncertainty for pandemic policy planning

Journal article (2023)

Authors

Sophie Hadjisotiriou Radboud University Medical Center
V.A.W.J. Marchau Radboud Universiteit Nijmegen
W.E. Walker Air Transport & Operations - Aerospace Engineering
Marcel Olde Rikkert Radboud University Medical Center
Research Group
Transport and Logistics (TPM) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2023 Sophie Hadjisotiriou, V.A.W.J. Marchau, W.E. Walker, Marcel Olde Rikkert
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2023.104831
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Published Date

2023

Language

English

Faculty

Technology, Policy and Management

Department

Engineering, Systems and Services

Research Group

Transport and Logistics

Abstract

Policymakers around the world were generally unprepared for the global COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the virus has led to millions of cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths. Theoretically, the number of cases and deaths did not have to happen (as demonstrated by the results in a few countries). In this pandemic, as in other great disasters, policymakers are confronted with what policy analysts call Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU). Deep uncertainty requires policies that are not based on 'predict and act' but on ‘prepare, monitor, and adapt’, enabling policy adaptations over time as events occur and knowledge is gained. We discuss the potential of a DMDU-approach for pandemic decisionmaking.