Reliability assessment for Modular Multilevel Converters using Monte Carlo Simulations

Abstract

Modular Multilevel Converters (MMCs) offer significant advantages in the medium to high-voltage settings. The modular architecture of MMCs allows for redundant submodules (SMs) to improve overall reliability. These redundant SMs can be deployed using various redundancy strategies, such as Load-Sharing Active Redundancy Strategy (LS-ARS), Fixed-Level Active Redundancy Strategy (FL-ARS), and Standby Redundancy Strategy (SRS). The primary contribution of this paper is the introduction of guidelines for applying Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and a comprehensive methodology for its application across various redundancy strategies. This enables precise planning of preventive maintenance and estimation of the number of faulty SMs with a specific lifespan in the MMC. More importantly, MCS is applied to estimate the reliability of the MMC applying Mission Profile for SRS and LS-ARS where analytical solutions are unavailable. An analysis of uncertainty and the applicability of MCS is also presented to demonstrate the advantages of MCS over analytical methods. The computational time required for applying MCS across different redundancy strategies and arm levels is also assessed.