Uncertainties in Long-Term Twenty-First Century Process-Based Coastal Sea-Level Projections

Review (2019)

Authors

Roderik S W van de Wal Universiteit Utrecht
X Zhang Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR)
S. Minobe Hokkaido University
S. Jevrejeva Centre for Climate Research Singapore, National Oceanography Center
R.E.M. Riva Physical and Space Geodesy - CEG
C. Little Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.
K. Richter University of Innsbruck
Matthew D. Palmer Met Office
Research Group
Physical and Space Geodesy (CEG) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2019 R. S.W. van de Wal, X. Zhang, S. Minobe, S. Jevrejeva, R.E.M. Riva, C. Little, K. Richter, M. D. Palmer
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09575-3
More Info
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Published Date

2019

Language

English

Faculty

Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Department

Geoscience and Remote Sensing

Research Group

Physical and Space Geodesy

Abstract

Many processes affect sea level near the coast. In this paper, we discuss the major uncertainties in coastal sea-level projections from a process-based perspective, at different spatial and temporal scales, and provide an outlook on how these uncertainties may be reduced. Uncertainty in centennial global sea-level rise is dominated by the ice sheet contributions. Geographical variations in projected sea-level change arise mainly from dynamical patterns in the ocean response and other geophysical processes. Finally, the uncertainties in the short-duration extreme sea-level events are controlled by near coastal processes, storms and tides.