A matrix-based modeling and analysis approach for fire-induced domino effects

Abstract

Knock-on effects or so-called domino effects in the process industries may cause much greater losses than merely a primary event. Probability analysis of accidents resulting from domino effects is important for risk assessment. However, for the accident occurrence of a unit there may be mutual influences between the units in the area influenced by the accidents due to a domino effect, and this makes the calculation of probabilities of the accidents rather difficult. A matrix-based approach is proposed to model the influences between units influenced by a fire-induced domino effects, and the analysis approach for accident propagation as well as a simulation-based algorithm for probability calculation of accidents is provided. The synergistic effect of thermal radiation is taken into account during the accident propagation. The proposed approach is flexible to model and analyze domino effects in various conditions of primary fires by only changing the value of the initial matrix indicating the fire states. Two examples illustrate analyzing the fire propagation among tanks storing flammable liquids. The results show that this approach is simple but effective for offering an insight in the accident propagation process and for knowing the probabilities of equipment getting on fire.