Title
An agent-based resilience model of oil tank farms exposed to earthquakes
Author
Tan, Xinxin (Southwest Petroleum University)
Xiao, Shenbin (Southwest Petroleum University)
Yang, Yu (Southwest Petroleum University)
Khakzad, Nima (Toronto Metropolitan University)
Reniers, G.L.L.M.E. (TU Delft Safety and Security Science) 
Chen, Chao (Southwest Petroleum University)
Date
2024
Abstract
Frequent unpredictable earthquake disasters such as the Turkey Earthquake in 2023 pose an increasing threat to oil tank farms since they may trigger major accidents and domino effects, resulting in casualties, economic losses, and environmental pollution. Unpredictable earthquakes are definitely difficult to prevent and thus resilience strategies such as emergency response should be applied to reduce losses. However, little attention has been paid to the quantitative resilience modeling of oil tank farms, resulting in difficulties in decision-making on resilience assessment and management. Therefore, this study proposes a quantitative seismic resilience model of oil storage tanks by using a dynamic agent-based modeling approach. This approach models the storage tank, active fault, and the environment as three independent agents with their attributes and behaviors. The interaction between agents can also be modeled through disaster evolution rules, and the consequences of interactions can be adjusted through adaptation and recovery strategies. The dynamic propagation of earthquake accidents and the evolution of potential domino effects can be quantified from a bottom-up perspective, thereby quantifying the seismic resilience of oil tank farms. A case study is carried out to illustrate the application of the developed model in oil tank farms and to analyze the sensitivity of different model parameters. The results show that the developed model can dynamically characterize the evolution of earthquake-induced domino effects as well as the emergency and restoration processes, supporting the decision-making on the allocation of resilience measures.
Subject
Agent-based modeling
Disaster evolution
Domino effects
Earthquake
Seismic resilience
To reference this document use:
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d5a1f73c-358d-4f84-b359-5a8e271b4107
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2024.110096
Embargo date
2024-09-26
ISSN
0951-8320
Source
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 247
Bibliographical note
Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.
Part of collection
Institutional Repository
Document type
journal article
Rights
© 2024 Xinxin Tan, Shenbin Xiao, Yu Yang, Nima Khakzad, G.L.L.M.E. Reniers, Chao Chen