Assessment of ductile dike behavior as a novel flood risk reduction measure

den Heijer, F.; Kok, M.

doi:10.1111/risa.14071

Assessment of ductile dike behavior as a novel flood risk reduction measure

Title

Assessment of ductile dike behavior as a novel flood risk reduction measure

Author

den Heijer, F. (Institute of Applied Sciences)
Kok, M. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)

Date

2022

Abstract

Dikes are an effective flood risk reduction measure in deltaic areas. Present risk analyses consist often of decoupled calculations of probabilities of dike failure and calculation of consequences of flooding given dike failure. However, the flood defense design determines not only the probability of failure, but influences the consequences of flooding as well. Especially when the dike has a ductile failure and breach growth behavior, due to a structural robust design, the consequences of flooding reduce. In this article, we present a novel assessment of risks and investments, valuing structural robustness of a construction type, represented by its ductile behavior during high loads. Therefore, the consecutive occurrence of initial dike failure mechanisms, failure path development, breach growth, and consequences is modeled integral and time-dependent. The investments consist of the costs to reinforce or reconstruct the flood defense to behave relatively ductile. This integral assessment enables to compare flood impacts of different construction types and different dimensions of designs. We applied it on a case in a riverine area in the Netherlands. The results show that the total societal costs and the individual risks on victims are very dependent on the construction type. The risk profile of a polder protected by a brittle or a ductile dike differs significantly. The brittle sand dike in the case requires larger dimensions than the more ductile dike with a clay core.

Subject

dike construction type
flood risk
optimalization
probabilistic

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http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9e7fcfc4-fa87-491e-a6de-e63a20589999

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14071

ISSN

0272-4332

Source

Risk Analysis: an international journal, 43 (9), 1779-1794

Part of collection

Institutional Repository