Title
Failure probability estimation of natural gas pipelines due to hydrogen embrittlement using an improved fuzzy fault tree approach
Author
Qin, Guojin (Southwest Petroleum University; Shanghai Jiao Tong University)
Li, Ruiling (Southwest Petroleum University)
Yang, M. (TU Delft Safety and Security Science; Universiti Teknologi Malaysia; University of Tasmania)
Wang, Bohong (Zhejiang Ocean University)
Ni, Pingan (Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology)
Wang, Yihuan (Southwest Petroleum University; Shanghai Jiao Tong University)
Date
2024
Abstract
The estimation of failure probability is challenging in hydrogen embrittlement in steel pipelines due to the complexity of the synergistic effect of multiple factors. The present study proposed a hybrid methodology to estimate the failure probability of steel pipelines due to hydrogen embrittlement. The methodology integrates the fault tree analysis with a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Fault tree analysis captures the logical relationships between influencing indicators to develop a new assessment model of hydrogen embrittlement in steel pipelines. An improved fuzzy fault tree analysis method was proposed to process aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties to estimate the probability of each basic event due to the difficulty in obtaining the actual probabilities. The failure probability of blended hydrogen natural gas pipelines was estimated by considering the correlation of events. A case study demonstrated the applicability of the proposed method. Maintenance measures can be implemented according to the evaluation results to ensure pipeline safety.
Subject
Blended hydrogen natural gas pipelines
Failure probability estimation
Fuzzy fault tree analysis
Hydrogen blistering
Hydrogen embrittlement
Hydrogen-induced cracking
To reference this document use:
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:95828fcd-3ab5-4d1b-85b5-a5e209d9ca4f
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.141601
Embargo date
2024-09-05
ISSN
0959-6526
Source
Journal of Cleaner Production, 448
Bibliographical note
Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.
Part of collection
Institutional Repository
Document type
journal article
Rights
© 2024 Guojin Qin, Ruiling Li, M. Yang, Bohong Wang, Pingan Ni, Yihuan Wang