Print Email Facebook Twitter The timing of decreasing coastal flood protection due to sea-level rise Title The timing of decreasing coastal flood protection due to sea-level rise Author Hermans, T.H.J. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy; NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research; Universiteit Utrecht) Malagón-Santos, Víctor (NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research) Katsman, C.A. (TU Delft Environmental Fluid Mechanics) Jane, Robert A. (University of Central Florida) Rasmussen, D. J. (Princeton University) Haasnoot, Marjolijn (Deltares; Universiteit Utrecht) Garner, Gregory G. (GRO Intelligence) Kopp, Robert E. (Rutgers University) Oppenheimer, Michael (Princeton University) Slangen, Aimée B.A. (NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research) Date 2023 Abstract Sea-level rise amplifies the frequency of extreme sea levels by raising their baseline height. Amplifications are often projected for arbitrary future years and benchmark frequencies. Consequently, such projections do not indicate when flood risk thresholds may be crossed given the current degree of local coastal protection. To better support adaptation planning and comparative vulnerability analyses, we project the timing of the frequency amplification of extreme sea levels relative to estimated local flood protection standards, using sea-level rise projections of IPCC AR6 until 2150. Our central estimates indicate that those degrees of protection will be exceeded ten times as frequently within the next 30 years (the lead time that large adaptation measures may take) at 26% and 32% of the tide gauges considered, and annually at 4% and 8%, for a low- and high-emissions scenario, respectively. Adaptation planners may use our framework to assess the available lead time and useful lifetime of protective infrastructure. To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:7a30fc8c-5d9f-43dc-b184-714d29c6a7ee DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01616-5 Embargo date 2023-09-23 ISSN 1758-678X Source Nature Climate Change, 13 (4), 359-366 Bibliographical note Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public. Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2023 T.H.J. Hermans, Víctor Malagón-Santos, C.A. Katsman, Robert A. Jane, D. J. Rasmussen, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Gregory G. Garner, Robert E. Kopp, Michael Oppenheimer, Aimée B.A. Slangen Files PDF s41558_023_01616_5.pdf 8.67 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:7a30fc8c-5d9f-43dc-b184-714d29c6a7ee/datastream/OBJ/view