Two-Population SIR Model and Strategies to Reduce Mortality in Pandemics

Two-Population SIR Model and Strategies to Reduce Mortality in Pandemics

Ma, L. (TU Delft Network Architectures and Services)
Kitsak, M.A. (TU Delft Network Architectures and Services)
Van Mieghem, P.F.A. (TU Delft Network Architectures and Services)

Benito, Rosa Maria (editor)
Cherifi, Chantal (editor)
Cherifi, Hocine (editor)
Moro, Esteban (editor)
Rocha, Luis M. (editor)
Sales-Pardo, Marta (editor)

2022

Despite many studies on the transmission mechanism of the Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), it remains still challenging to efficiently reduce mortality. In this work, we apply a two-population Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model to investigate the COVID-19 spreading when contacts between elderly and non-elderly individuals are reduced due to the high mortality risk of elderly people. We discover that the reduction of connections between two populations can delay the death curve but cannot reduce the final mortality. We propose a merged SIR model, which advises elderly individuals to interact less with their non-elderly connections at the initial stage but interact more with their non-elderly relationships later, to reduce mortality. Finally, immunizing elderly hub individuals can also significantly decrease mortality.

Complex networks
COVID-19 pandemic
Mortality reduction
Two-population SIR model

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4da10213-4c3c-484c-9d62-1fb936d54dab

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93413-2_23

Springer

2022-07-04

9783030934125

Complex Networks and Their Applications X - Volume 2, Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications COMPLEX NETWORKS 2021

10th International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications, COMPLEX NETWORKS 2021, 2021-11-30 → 2021-12-02, Hybrid at Madrid, Spain

Studies in Computational Intelligence, 1860-949X, 1016

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

Institutional Repository

conference paper

© 2022 L. Ma, M.A. Kitsak, P.F.A. Van Mieghem