Print Email Facebook Twitter Accident Risk Assessment for Advanced Air Traffic Management Title Accident Risk Assessment for Advanced Air Traffic Management Author Blom, H.A.P. Bakker, G.J. Blanker, P.J.G. Daams, J. Everdij, M.H.C. Klompstra, M.B. Institution National Aerospace Laboratory NLR Date 2001-12-31 Abstract By now, safety is recognised as a key quality on which to select/design advanced air traffic management (ATM) concepts, even when capacity and efficiency are the drivers of the development. The safety target is often described as 'equal or better' in comparison with existing practice, allowing a large freedom in how safety is expressed, let alone measured. In effect, new advanced communication, navigation, surveillance and air traffic management (CNS/ATM) concept developments are typically accomplished without the use of feedback from appropriate safety assessments. ATM concept design teams (e.g., of Free Flight or four dimensional ATM) try to realise capacity-efficiency enhancements by exploiting new technology, changing human controller roles and introducing new procedures, while relying on the established safety-related indicators in ATM such as conflict rates and types, workload of human operators and failure rates and effects of technical systems. ATM, however, is the result of complex interactions between multiple human operators, procedures and technical systems, all of which are highly distributed. This yields that providing safety is more than making sure that each of the ATM elements function properly safe; it is the complex interaction between them that determines safety. The assessment of isolated indicators falls short in covering the complex interactions between procedures, human operators and technical systems in safety-critical non-nominal situations. To improve this situation, this paper outlines a novel probabilistic risk assessment methodology, which has specifically been developed for application to ATM. In addition, this paper presents risk assessment results which have been obtained with this approach for two en route streams of required navigational performance, 95% of time within 1 n mile (RNPl), equipped traffic flying in opposite direction within two conventional ATM concepts and two airborne separation assurance based concepts. These results illustrate that our new methodology supports safety-based ATM design. To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1d205b75-99cd-45e4-8699-08da4a308c5b Publisher Nationaal Lucht- en Ruimtevaartlaboratorium Access restriction Campus only Source NLR Technical Publication TP 2001-642 Part of collection Aerospace Engineering Reports Document type report Rights (c)2001 National Aerospace Laboratory NLR Files PDF 2001-642.pdf 16.38 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:1d205b75-99cd-45e4-8699-08da4a308c5b/datastream/OBJ/view